Crypto Market Observation: Bitcoin Breaks Through 110,000 Threshold, Ethereum Challenges Important Resistance Level

Market Overview

Despite the United States extending the tariff delay until August 1, it threatened again this week to raise taxes on imported goods from major trading partners, leading to continued uncertainty regarding the final tariff levels. A UBS report shows that the currently implemented tariffs are equivalent to a tax of 1.5% of GDP on U.S. importers, with annual tariff revenues exceeding $300 billion. The lagged effects of these tariffs on inflation are expected to show in the July CPI data to be released in August. This delay is mainly due to corporate inventory buffering, slow price transmission of intermediate goods, and the CPI bi-monthly sampling mechanism. Historical experience indicates that a 10% general tariff takes 2-3 months to fully reflect in the price index.

In terms of interest rate policy, the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma. A survey by the New York Fed shows that one-year inflation expectations have fallen to 3%, but pressures from specific categories such as medical costs (9.3%) and university tuition (9.1%) remain significant. At the same time, the labor market presents mixed signals, with concerns about unemployment easing, but the difficulty of reemployment increasing.

With the Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" set to take effect in August, the market is full of expectations for the compliance dividends brought about by the clarified regulatory framework. Analysts have pointed out that some Hong Kong stocks related to stablecoin concepts have recently doubled in value, reflecting the market's strong expectations for compliance dividends after the regulations come into effect in August. The regulatory framework is expected to cover core requirements such as anti-money laundering and reserve auditing, and the first batch of licenses planned to be issued within the year could reshape the competitive landscape of the industry. However, for stablecoins to disrupt traditional payment systems, they still need to overcome three major obstacles: the distribution mechanism of interests between financial institutions and technology companies, the challenges of cross-border regulatory coordination, and the stress testing of systemic risks under extreme market conditions.

Crypto Market Analysis

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a critical phase of technical breakthroughs and cycle validation, with both bulls and bears fiercely contesting around the resistance level of $110,000. Analysts point out that if the price fails to break through this resistance level, it may quickly retreat to $100,000; conversely, it could aim for $120,000. More optimistic predictions suggest that, considering the trend of M2 money supply, Bitcoin may rise to the range of $120,000 to $125,000 in the next phase. From a long-term cycle perspective, some analysts predict that the peak of this bull market could occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025, based on historical halving cycles.

On the Ethereum front, after breaking through the $2600 mark, it is approaching the $2630 triangle resistance level. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in trading volume to confirm the trend. The market's optimistic sentiment towards Ethereum is also transmitted to stocks holding related tokens, with several associated listed companies' stock prices rising in tandem.

In the altcoin market, a certain project announced the migration of its DEX from one network to another, gradually phasing out its native coin, resulting in a 60% drop in the coin's value within 24 hours. Although the competition between two MEME coins in another ecosystem remains heated, the relevant coins have experienced a pullback of over 30%, and the market is temporarily lacking a sustainable new narrative.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $108,513 (year-to-date +15.99%), daily spot trading volume $21.324 billion
• Ethereum: $2,600.10 (Year-to-date -22.06%), daily spot trading volume is $15.521 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 67 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 64.2%, ETH 9.3%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9728
• Sector performance: DeFi sector increased by 2.89%; L2 sector increased by 2.78%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 59,563 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 121 million USD.

ETF Flows (As of July 8)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$80.08 million, continued net inflow for 4 days
• Ethereum ETF: +$46.6308 million, 3-day net inflow

Today's Outlook

• The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting (July 10, 02:00)
• In 2025, FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy (July 10, 21:00)
• Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 5 are expected to be announced (July 10, 20:30)

Top 500 Market Cap Largest Gains

1. Treasure (MAGIC) increased by 46.05%
2. Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) increased by 31.92%
3. Zebec Network ( ZBCN ) rose 16.77%
4. Cronos (CRO) rose by 16.70%
5. VVS Finance ( VVS ) up 15.75%

Hot News

• A well-known investment institution has liquidated its COMP holdings and transferred another 400,000 COMP to the trading platform today.
• A stablecoin issuer holds $8 billion worth of gold in a secret vault in Switzerland.
• Global gold ETFs increased by $38 billion in the first half of the year, with average daily trading volume setting a half-year record.
• A listed company purchased 7,689 Ether last week, with total holdings exceeding 200,000 coins and receiving 322 Ethereum staking rewards.
• Hong Kong listed company Golden Stream Investment surged over 600%, having announced a stablecoin collaboration with AnchorX.
• "Yiwu merchants start accepting stablecoins" ranks 4th on Baidu hot search list.
• The number of addresses holding a certain well-known Meme coin is about to surpass 1 million, at which point 1 trillion coins will be burned.
• The publicly listed real estate company Murano plans to establish a Bitcoin reserve through a $500 million equity transaction.
• A publicly traded company sold 280 Bitcoins and used the proceeds to purchase Ethereum.
• Public company GameSquare raises $8 million to initiate an Ether fund management strategy.