Bitcoin Halving Anniversary: This Cycle Shows Unique Characteristics

Bitcoin has been one year since the last Halving, and this cycle shows a significantly different trend compared to the past. In contrast to the explosive growth seen in previous cycles after Halving, this round has seen a relatively modest increase of only 31%. In comparison, the increase during the same period of the last cycle was as high as 436%.

At the same time, the long-term holder indicator (, such as the MVRV ratio ), shows a significant decline in unrealized profits, indicating that the market is gradually maturing and the upside potential is being compressed. Overall, these changes suggest that Bitcoin may be entering a new phase, with less parabolic growth and more gradual increases driven by institutional investors.

A Unique Cycle

The development trajectory of this Bitcoin cycle is significantly different from previous years, which may indicate that the market's reaction to the Halving event is changing.

In the early cycles (, especially from 2012 to 2016 and from 2016 to 2020 ), Bitcoin often experiences a strong rise during this phase. The Halving is usually accompanied by strong upward momentum and a parabolic price trend, primarily due to retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.

However, the current cycle shows a different trend. The price did not accelerate after the Halving, but instead began to surge in October and December of the previous year, followed by a consolidation in January of this year and a pullback in late February. This prior surge behavior is starkly different from historical patterns, where past Halvings were usually catalysts for significant increases.

There are various factors that have contributed to this shift. Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset driven by retail investors; it is increasingly becoming a mature financial instrument. The increased participation of institutional investors, combined with macroeconomic pressures and changes in market structure, has led to a more cautious and complex market response.

Another obvious sign of this evolution is the gradual weakening of the intensity of each cycle. As the market capitalization of Bitcoin grows, the explosive price increases of the early years are becoming increasingly difficult to replicate. For example, during the 2020-2024 cycle, Bitcoin rose 436% one year after the Halving. In contrast, the price increase during the same period of this cycle was only 31%, which is much more moderate.

This transformation may signify that Bitcoin is entering a new phase characterized by reduced volatility and more stable long-term growth. Halving may no longer be the main driving force, as factors such as interest rates, liquidity, and institutional funding are playing a larger role.

It is worth noting that in previous cycles, there have also been consolidations and pullbacks before the recovery of the upward trend. Although the current phase feels slow and tedious, it may represent a healthy adjustment before the next round of increase.

This cycle may continue to deviate from historical patterns. It may not experience a dramatic top bubble burst, but instead present a more durable and structurally solid upward trend, driven more by fundamentals than speculation.

Long-term Holder MVRV Ratio Reveals Market Maturity

The market value to actual value ratio of long-term holders ( LTH ) has always been a reliable indicator of unrealized profits, showing the profits gained by long-term investors before selling. However, over time, this value is decreasing.

During the 2016-2020 cycle, the LTH MVRV ratio peaked at 35.8, indicating huge unrealized profits and a clear top formation. In the 2020-2024 cycle, the peak sharply dropped to 12.2, despite Bitcoin's price hitting an all-time high at that time.

So far this cycle, the LTH MVRV ratio has peaked at only 4.35, a significant decline. This indicates that the returns for long-term holders are much lower than in previous cycles, despite the substantial rise in Bitcoin prices. This trend is clear: the multiplicity of returns in each cycle is decreasing.

The explosive upward space of Bitcoin is being compressed, and the market is gradually maturing. This is not a coincidence; as the market develops, extreme returns become harder to achieve. The era of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading, replaced by more moderate or stable growth.

The continuously growing market size means that exponentially more capital is needed to significantly drive up prices.

However, this does not mean that the current cycle has peaked. Previous cycles often include long periods of consolidation or slight pullbacks before reaching new highs.

As the role of institutional investors becomes increasingly important, the accumulation phase may be prolonged. Therefore, peak profit selling may not be as sudden as in earlier cycles.

However, if the MVRV ratio peak decline trend continues, it may strengthen the view that Bitcoin is transitioning from a frenzy, cyclical surge to a more moderate but structured growth pattern.

The most extreme price increases may have become a thing of the past, especially for investors who entered the market late in the cycle.