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BTC fell 11% in two weeks! K33 Research: Dragged down by 'global stock market correction'
As the market expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow down interest rate cuts in 2025, global stock markets have entered a major correction, and risk assets such as BTC have not been spared. According to data from K33 Research, BTC has fallen by 11% in the past two weeks, and its correlation with the Nasdaq index has reached its highest level since the end of September last year, indicating that BTC's recent decline is closely related to stock market volatility. Please provide the text to be translated. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, said: "In the two weeks following the Fed's December meeting, the world is de-risking, with BTC down 11% in the past two weeks and Ether down 15%, causing the ETH/BTC exchange rate to fall to 0.036."
In the K33 Research report, Vetle Lunde stated that the current decline of BTC is strongly related to the global stock market. The 30-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq index has risen above 0.50, the first time since the end of September.
After the December FOMC meeting, risk assets showed a downward trend
Vetle Lunde pointed out that the meeting held by the Federal Reserve on December 18th was an important catalyst for the downward trend.
The Fed revised the dot plot released at this meeting to predict only 2 rate cuts in 2025, lower than the 4 rate cuts predicted in September. Rate cuts usually boost the market, so the reduced number of expected rate cuts is relatively unfavorable for risk assets such as BTC.
In addition, the Fed's press conference showed that some officials have considered the inflationary pressure that Trump's return to the presidency may bring. This is a change from the message released in the November press conference. Vetle Lunde said:
Although the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 100 basis points since September, the 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen by 100 basis points, indicating that the market expects future inflation to rise.
He pointed out that after the Federal Reserve meeting, BTC experienced a significant loss of ETF funds, and the amount of BTC purchased by MicroStrategy was also more restrained. These factors have weakened the momentum of BTC and interrupted the upward trend formed since November 5th.
Trading is light during the Christmas holiday period
QCP Capital analysts observed that BTC spot trading was significantly volatile during Christmas due to reduced liquidity. Analysts said:
Any upward rebound in the past few days has continued to be limited by selling pressure. The momentum of BTC significantly declined at the end of 2024, and the net outflow of spot ETF funds has reached 1.8 billion US dollars since December 19. Please provide the text to be translated. Analysts also emphasized that the weak performance of cryptocurrencies reflects the overall sentiment in the financial market. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have experienced a 1% decline for the third time in eight trading days, as the market is assessing the uncertain situation of global trade entering 2025. Please provide the text to be translated. According to K33 Research, trading volume on all major exchanges has dropped to pre-election levels. Vetle Lunde said:
The current 7-day average daily spot trading volume is $3.4 billion, the lowest 7-day trading volume since November 5.
K33 Research's data shows that for BTC, the typical winter holiday is characterized by low trading volume. However, the calmness of Christmas in 2024 is also due to the ETF being in a low-trading holiday period, and activities on the CME have also cooled down. Vetle Lunde pointed out:
In addition, the decrease in MicroStrategy's BTC purchases further dragged the trading volume to a more subdued level.
MicroStrategy's stock price fell below $300 per share in after-hours trading on Monday, down 46% from its historic high in November. Earlier, the company proposed issuing billions of new shares to support a $42 billion financing strategy, causing concern in the market.
The current price of BTC is $93,442.15, a slight increase of 0.8% in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin fell 11% in two weeks! K33 Research: Dragged down by 'global stock market correction'