Recently, the unexpected rise in the U.S. Producer Price Index ( PPI ) has raised doubts in the market about a possible rate cut in September. Previously, influenced by comments from Bessent, the market widely expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September, with some speculating a potential cut of 50 basis points. However, the latest PPI data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a significant rise in inflation, making even a 25 basis point rate cut uncertain.

Nevertheless, the author believes that the current economic data is not a decisive factor. The real focus remains on the game between Trump and the Federal Reserve. If Trump's supporters hold the majority in the September meeting, even if the PPI data rises by 1% or even 5%, the possibility of an interest rate cut still exists.

However, we cannot underestimate the sense of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Board members. If inflation rises only slightly, they may comply with Trump's wishes. But if inflation increases significantly, being able to maintain a 25 basis point rate cut would already be quite good.

Next, the market will closely watch what other policy cards Trump has to play. Notably, Bessent recently stated that he is considering acquiring Bitcoin through other means to support the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, which could be another policy card from Trump.

Overall, the interest rate decision in September will be a complex game, where economic data, political pressure, and the independence of monetary policy will all play important roles. Investors need to closely monitor the developments to make informed investment decisions.