#打榜优质内容# What is PPI? It is the most sensitive inflation thermometer on the production end. This time the reading "exploded", meaning that business costs are "running a high fever". If this high fever does not subside, the consequences are very direct:

Inflation expectations rise again: corporate costs have increased, ultimately the burden falls on the consumers, can consumer prices (CPI) not be under pressure? Consumers' wallets are thinning, and the Federal Reserve is even less likely to ease up on the throttle in this "Long March" against inflation.
"September Interest Rate Cut 'Overshadowed': There were previously optimistic predictions that the Federal Reserve might make a 'big move' to cut rates by 50 basis points. Now? With the PPI's 'sucker punch', mainstream institutions have lowered their expectations—if a 25 basis point cut happens in September, it would be considered a concession to the market. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a rate cut in September has plummeted from about 85% last week to around 75%."
The market votes with its feet: once the PPI came out, US stock futures fell in response, the dollar strengthened, and US Treasury yields rose— a typical "risk assets retreat" scenario. The expectation of interest rate cuts was doused with cold water by the PPI.

Is there a "script" behind the data?

The BLS, which releases the PPI, is currently in the spotlight. Just recently, its head was replaced by Trump, and the new leader is seen as having a policy direction that aligns more closely with the former president. (Background event: Trump's replacement of the director of the statistics bureau sparked discussion). This personnel change made many people anxious at the time: "Will this key data be 'polished'?" However, the PPI is somewhat different from non-farm data. Its collection method is more "hardcore"—companies directly quote prices, and industry price lists are reported in black and white, making the statistical process relatively "rigid". It is extremely difficult to make artificial "adjustments", and any changes must be clearly stated in the statistical notes. Therefore, this time the PPI's "spiciness" is likely to be genuine, not a fake spiciness with a "filter" added. Even with a change in leadership, the professional processes and institutional guarantees of the statistical team remain in place, so the data is essentially what it is. This time, the "fever" is still credible.

Is the "macroeconomic dependency" in the crypto world a blessing or a curse?

When the "PPI inflation signal" detonates, the cryptocurrency market immediately "drops down to find cover"—this is by no means a coincidence. It sounds the alarm again: the cryptocurrency market is suffering from a deep "macro dependency syndrome." A subtle hint from the Federal Reserve, an unexpected fluctuation in key data, can have a power that far exceeds a major upgrade or application explosion on a specific blockchain.
In this era of "data as the market", keeping an eye on the economic calendar may be more important than watching the market. Macroeconomic data is no longer background noise in the cryptocurrency space, but a conductor that dictates the rhythm of the market's heartbeat.

There is still more than a month until the expected rate cut window at the end of September. Given the historical "nature" of the cryptocurrency market, it would be quite "normal" for unexpected fluctuations to occur during this period. Being prepared to handle volatility is key.