The Impact and Outlook of Bitcoin Mining Under Tariff Policies

Abstract

In April 2025, the U.S. government launched a reciprocal tariff policy, imposing a minimum benchmark tariff of 10% on global trade partners, triggering significant volatility in global risk assets. The Bitcoin mining industry, which relies on physical mining machines, faced direct impact. Mining machine manufacturers faced pressures from both supply and demand sides, with self-operated mining farms primarily influenced by the supply side, while cloud computing mining farms were affected relatively less. Although the tariff policy struck at the U.S. Bitcoin mining industry, institutional investors still hold the pricing power of Bitcoin. Policy trends, geopolitical security, energy scheduling, and manufacturing stability have become key factors for the survival of the mining industry.

Analysis of the Impact of Tariff Policies on Various Sectors of Bitcoin Mining

miner manufacturer

The recent decline in mining machine manufacturers has been the largest, primarily due to the impact of tariffs on both supply and demand sides. Upstream chip foundries are facing high tariff pressures, which may be passed on to costs. On the demand side, U.S. mining sites purchasing Chinese-made mining machines are required to bear high tariffs, leading to a shrinkage in short-term orders. In the long term, manufacturers may consider deploying production capacity in tariff-friendly regions.

self-operated mining farm

Self-operated mining farms are mainly affected by supply-side factors. Large mining farms like Marathon adopt a stockpiling strategy and are less affected by Bitcoin price fluctuations. Small mining farms face tight cash flow and may be forced to "mine and sell immediately," exacerbating market selling pressure. In the long term, the taxation of mining machines will increase the marginal costs of the industry and challenge the profitability of small and medium-sized mining farms.

Cloud Mining Farm

The cloud mining farm is minimally affected. Its essence is a leasing model that shifts costs to customers through service fees. Revenue is mainly driven by the overall network hashrate, which has still maintained growth recently. Although the cost side faces upward pressure, the leasing model has a risk buffering mechanism.

The Impact of Restructuring the Bitcoin Mining Landscape on Prices

Tariff policies increase the costs for domestic mines in the United States, providing opportunities for non-U.S. companies. The influence of large American mining companies may decline, while new entrants adopting a "mine, extract, and sell" strategy could exert pressure on prices. However, in the long term, institutional investors represented by IBIT and MicroStrategy continue to buy, which is expected to hedge supply pressure and stabilize market structure.

Summary

The tariff policy of the Trump administration poses a dual challenge of upstream costs and geopolitical layout for Bitcoin mining. Mining machine manufacturers are under the heaviest pressure, self-operated mining farms face rising costs and increased capital expenditure pressure, while cloud computing mining farms have relatively more buffering capacity. Global computing power may further disperse to low-tariff regions. In the short term, rising mining costs may constitute a marginal bearish factor for Bitcoin prices, but institutional forces are expected to offset supply pressure. The Bitcoin mining industry is at a critical juncture of policy reshaping and structural transition, and investors need to closely monitor the policy evolution and the rebalancing of the industry chain brought about by computing power migration.