Why are most Meme coin players destined to lose money?

Recently, I wrote an article titled "Stick to Your Investment Philosophy, or You'll Lose Money." However, the reality seems to be that very few people actually have an investment philosophy, and worse, almost everyone is losing money. For newcomers experiencing the cryptocurrency cycle for the first time, welcome to this high-risk market. If you try to gamble against the house, the outcome is often failure. For example, popular meme coins like $TRUMP, $LIBRA, $JAILSTOOL, and $CAR are great examples. These are just the surface phenomena; if you delve deeper, you'll find that the issues go far beyond this.

I want to emphasize again: if you treat the cryptocurrency market like a casino, it will treat you like a gambler.

In traditional casinos, only about 20% of players can win on slot machines. This means that the vast majority are losers - even the so-called "winners" find it difficult to claim true profitability when considering their total investment before winning. Suppose you bet on a series of Meme coins, repeatedly failing, and finally hit a big jackpot. What happens? You might think you're special, believing you've found the winning formula. But in reality, your victory is just a random event, and if you continue to participate, you will eventually be consumed by the market.

The casino attracts you with free buffets and dreams of financial freedom. The Meme coin tempts you with airdrops, thousand-fold returns, huge profits, and luxury goods.

The casino sets the rules, making you keep participating until they decide to eliminate you. Influencers on social media hype Meme coins to sky-high prices and then abandon them.

When you're having bad luck, the casino will sell you the fantasy of "getting rich overnight." The Meme coin market has a similar effect, only with a lower probability of success.

From a mathematical perspective, why do most people end up losing money?

Let's explain the law of large numbers in simple terms. This law states that as the number of trials increases, your results will get closer and closer to the expected average value. In gambling, the expected average value is the amount you lose. Casinos and various gambling games are designed based on this principle. The more times you participate, the closer your individual results will approach the house edge.

This can be understood in this way: if you flip a coin 10 times, you might get 7 heads and 3 tails — anomalies are easy to occur in a small sample. But if you flip it 1000 times, the results will be closer to a 50/50 probability. The same logic applies to Meme coin speculation. You might get lucky once or twice, but after enough trades, the expected results will revert to reality. And the reality is that opinion leaders on social media are becoming wealthier, while ordinary investors are burdened with huge losses.

So, how do the few winners succeed?

1. Entering very early - but we must admit that even the smartest people find it difficult to accurately grasp the timing of exit, and entering early is almost impossible.

2. Becoming an insider trader - this is an unethical and illegal behavior.

3. Becoming an opinion leader to manipulate the market is also an unethical practice.

In short, this is essentially a game of luck, unless you meet the above conditions, but most people (, including myself ), do not meet them.

Nonetheless, the negative image of the cryptocurrency industry needs to change. Meme coins are almost impossible to make you rich overnight. If you really care about this field, you should study it in depth and develop a genuine investment philosophy.

Expecting to achieve a ten-thousandfold return within a few hours is unrealistic. A reasonable expectation is to obtain 2-4 times the return within 2-5 years. If you can understand this, you have a chance to make money (. Of course, this is not investment advice ). Do not be misled by short-term Meme trends.

Will Meme coin disappear? No.

Has their crazy hype reached its peak? Maybe, and this situation is likely to continue.

But if you want to succeed in this complex cryptocurrency world, you need to be well prepared and have a deep understanding of the projects you are investing in.