Future Technological Development Directions of Ethereum and Its Potential Impacts

Ethereum has planned several important "technical breakthroughs" in its technology roadmap for the next two years, which may have a significant impact on Ethereum's performance, application scenarios, and market position. Here are a few key directions:

1. zkEVM integrated into the main chain

The mainnet deployment is expected to be completed between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026. The main technical objectives include:

• 99% of blocks can be verified within 10 seconds
• The cost of zero-knowledge proof verification is reduced by 80%

The significance of this technological breakthrough is:

• It may further expand the market share of mainstream stablecoins on the Ethereum main chain, increase daily Gas consumption, and promote ETH deflation.
• Providing better compliance and privacy protection for traditional financial institutions is expected to activate large-scale institutional DeFi application scenarios.

2. Introduction of RISC-V Execution Architecture

The research and development plan will start in the second half of 2025 and is expected to be implemented in phases between 2026 and 2030. The main technical objectives include:

• The execution efficiency of smart contracts has improved by 3-5 times.
• Gas costs reduced by 50-70%
• Introduce an open-source instruction set architecture to enhance compatibility with modern hardware acceleration technologies.

The significance of this technological breakthrough is:

• Significant performance improvements may give rise to entirely new application scenarios, such as high-frequency trading, real-time gaming, AI inference, and more.
• Lower gas costs may reactivate small transaction scenarios, expanding the user base and usage frequency.

3. Collaboration between the Main Chain and Layer 2 Network Ecosystem

The plan is to start continuous optimization from the fourth quarter of 2025 and to carry it out during 2026-2027. The main technical objectives include:

• Achieve seamless interoperability between the main chain and major Layer 2 networks
• The unified liquidity pool size is expected to exceed 200 billion USD.
• Cross-layer transaction costs reduced by 90%, achieving cross-layer confirmation within 10 seconds.

The significance of this technological breakthrough is:

• It may significantly enhance the capital efficiency and application experience of the entire Ethereum ecosystem.
• DeFi protocols are expected to aggregate liquidity across the entire ecosystem more efficiently, generating significant network effects.

4. Optimizing the Validator Economic Model

The plan is to start in the second half of 2025, coordinating with various technical upgrades for simultaneous optimization, expected to last for two years for improvement. The main technical objectives include:

• The minimum staking threshold for validators is gradually decreasing and may eventually drop to 1 ETH.
• The annualized staking yield is expected to increase from the current 4-6% to 6-8%
• Simplify the threshold for validator operation, support light node validation

The significance of this technological breakthrough is:

• The ETH staking rate may increase from the current approximately 25% to over 40%, further reducing the circulating supply.
• The potential increase in staking yields may enhance the appeal of ETH as a "digital bond," providing support for its valuation.

5. Sharding Technology Return (ETH 3.0)

The design and development are planned to start in 2026, with potential implementation in 2027-2028 or later. The main technical objectives include:

• Combining zkEVM and sharding technology to achieve millions of transactions per second processing capability.
• The cost of data availability has been reduced by 99%.
• Distributing blockchain data across multiple shards to optimize validator data processing.

The significance of this technological breakthrough is:

• Indicate that Ethereum is preparing for large-scale Web3 applications in the next decade.
• Expected to revive the vision of "World Computer"

If these technological breakthroughs can be successfully realized, they may significantly enhance the performance, scalability, and economic model of Ethereum, providing strong support for its long-term development.